Notes
Slide Show
Outline
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Predicative solutions to gambling systems
  • How wearable computing and microprocessors can aid in gaming and gambling
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Electronics and Casino Gaming
  • Casino games, such as blackjack, roulette, poker, can be statistically beaten using mathematics
  • Mini-electronic devices aid in providing computation for mathematics
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Example: Blackjack and Card Counting
  • In Blackjack, a card game, the dealer deals two cards initially to every player and the dealer
  • Face cards are worth 10, all others face value
  • The players try to get closest to twenty one without going over, and beating the dealer’s score
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How counting would work in a basic blackjack game
  • 1. Start the count at 0 when the deck is shuffled.
  • 2. Count -1 for 10, J, Q, K, A
  • 3. Count +1 for cards 2-6
  • 4. Bet low when the count is negative, high when the count is positive
  • With a method like this in a single deck scenario, statistically a player can earn up to a 1%-2% advantage over the house
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Why ‘card counting’ works
  • Card counting works because of the nature of probability mathematics
  • Blackjack is one of the few games which uses multiple decks and doesn’t require a reshuffle for every hand
  • Therefore, the probability of getting a certain card increases after cards which are *not* the card you’re looking for are drawn from the deck.
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Why ‘card counting’ works, cont’d
  • There are certain caveats to Blackjack, given the dealer’s restrictions.
  • Face cards tend to favor the player, and using a rudimentary counting system one can bet according to how many face cards are left
  • The ‘card count’ is actually a crude representation of how many face cards have not been drawn, i.e. a measure of the odds of drawing a face card
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Why use computing devices?
  • In multiple deck scenarios, or over long periods of time, the math required can get difficult
  • Computing devices offer quick mathematical calculations and the ability to maintain state
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What kind of computing devices?
  • Any device that a user can input and output values and can maintain state
  • Preferably, one that can be used and stored discreetly
  • Devices as small as the cricket are inexpensive, easy to use (toggle switches) and are incredibly modifiable
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Roulette
  • Roulette, like any game, has physical principles which govern the outcome
  • Watching a Roulette wheel and recording results and biases can pay off over time
  • Electronic counters can measure things like roulette ball speed and roulette wheel speed. Using a computer, an approximate outcome can be determined
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The Eudaemonic Pie
  • In the mid to late seventies, a loose group of physicists and computer engineers devised a potential system using a computer to measure speed and timing of roulette
  • Using the newly invented microprocessor, these individuals built preliminary computers with simple inputs and outputs to gain an advantage in Roulette
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How to measure speeds
  • Using toe-switches , the gamblers would pick a fixed point on a roulette wheel and ‘click’ the switch when a reference number on the wheel would pass by that point. Two clicks and an approximate velocity can be determined for the wheel
  • Using the same reference point, the gamblers would measure the ball speed the same way.


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How this leads to prediction
  • With a roulette wheel speed and roulette ball speed, one can calculate an approximate time that the ball would drop
  • Several games must be viewed, and if the results differ from the predicted equation, the biases of the wheel must be recorded and the program altered
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Problems
  • Even though odds may change, randomness still plays a huge factor
  • Oftentimes, even though an edge over the casino can be derived, it is often small, requiring large sums of money to take advantage of it
  • Casinos frown upon those who win their money consistently. They know everything the players know about the game, and attempt to compensate for it
  • Albert Einstein has said, "No one can possibly win a roulette unless he steals money from the table while the croupier isn't looking.“
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Problems with the electronics
  • Electronics are small, but not invisible. Casinos are always looking for indiscriminate behavior
  • Electronics are prone to failure, including battery failure and general breakdowns
  • Even with good electronics and a good strategy, these systems tend to be complicated in active, social casino environments
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References
  • The Eudaemonic Pie, Thomas Bass
  • Bringing Down the House, Ben Mezrich